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New York puts forth Four Presidential candidates.

by Daniel Peterson


With the 2006 Election Cycle coming to an end, talk has immediately jumped to the 2008 Presidential race and in New York, the media is determined to lift four big contenders to the forefront of discussions. These discussions include Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Senator Hillary Clinton, Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Governor George Pataki as candidates for President of the United States. They all have notable records to run on and could potentially garner plenty of support throughout the country. They also have histories that could turn away voters and prevent them from getting far in the race.

In another time, New York was a breeding ground for national leadership, sending men like Martin Van Buren, Chester A. Arthur, Grover Cleveland and the Roosevelts to the Washington. Times change however, as does the direction of our two main political parties, and the issues voters believe are most important have swung Presidential elections away from leaders from large cities to leaders who appeal to states with an entire population equivalent to these large cities. Could New York's four potential candidates persuade America's voters back to a big city ticket?

Mayor Michael Bloomberg
New York City's current mayor won an election in 2001 by default. Here was a billionaire who changed his registration from Democrat to Republican, so he could avoid the crowded field in the Democratic Primary. He was able to expand his name recognition with unlimited financial resources and appeal to registered Republicans, as well as NYC voters known as "Giuliani Democrats" & "Reagan Democrats." His unexpected victory was a result of ill advised campaign tactics on the Democrat's side, which drove a large percentage of hispanic voters to pull the lever for the Republican candidate.

Because of his record and streak of independence, many political operatives believe Mayor Bloomberg could run a successful presidential campaign in 2008. Unfortunately, he has no home in the two major parties. The Democratic National Committee has no intention of endorsing someone who has spent the last five years as a registered Republican, and the Republican National Committee isn't likely to back a candidate who fits the mold of its archaic Nelson Rockefeller wing. The voters he'd potential attract would be Republicans and independents in New England and moderate Democrats and independents throughout the rest of the country. This could be seen as a win-win for an independent candidate, but the bottom line is no independent candidate has ever one the presidency in America's history.

Michael Bloomberg is enjoying all the attention he's receiving as a potential presidential candidate, but his national ambitions after his mayoral term is not in elected office. He will certainly be a major player in the 2008 elections and beyond, but with his recent 2030:PLANYC, his focus will remain predominantly on New York City for the foreseeable future.

Senator Hillary Clinton.
Senator Clinton enjoys the fame of being the wife of former president William J. Clinton. President Clinton is remembered as a polarizing figure in elected politics. Republicans despise the man for abusing his power as president, as well as talking out of both sides of his mouth on issues and matters that are important for the country. His ability to say what you want to hear is exactly his endearing quality that has Democrats swooning over him. Simply being the wife of such an enigma couldn't hurt your chances of building a base support among Democrats. Hillary Clinton made a calculated and wise decision to move to a state where she could successfully run for US Senate, build a record and support and become a power player in US politics.

Though many left-leaning organizations have attacked Sen. Clinton on some of her votes in Washington and positions on national interests, the bottom line is she is a Clinton and Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to win the presidency in the last quarter century.

Does Senator Clinton have the same appeal her husband had among Democrats? Probably not. She's a very smart woman and knows she will have more enemies than supporters if she chooses to run for president. Many believe it's a forgone conclusion that she will run for president and even someone such as Dick Morris, a man who has worked closely with the woman, is in this category. However it is unlikely that she will step forward and throw her hat in the ring.

As a senator, Hillary Clinton enjoys support in one of the nation's largest states. If she enjoys being a civil servant in national politics, her record as a senator will almost ensure reelection in 2012. If she throws her hat in the ring for president, many of her negatives will come out and weaken her statewide appeal. She won't have to leave her senate seat as a presidential candidate, but since she won't win, she will enter the 2012 elections in a far weaker position against a strong Republican candidate.

Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.
The man who changed... no... fixed New York and brought it back to its glory is almost certain to be a major player in the 2008 Presidential elections. Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani has already opened an exploratory committee for president and appears to have national appeal after being thrown into the national stage of politics on September 11, 2001. Mayor Giuliani appeared on TV news beyond the borders of the metropolitan area due to his calm and cautious approach to a terrorist attack that changed our nation forever. Soon afterward, he was profiled by countless news organizations and print media and reached star status with his record of accomplishment in a city that was said to be impossible to manage.

Rudy Giuliani is not someone without a negative side. He made many political enemies and developed an unfavorable rating in black and hispanic circles. His personal life is much to be desired among social conservatives and his liberal beliefs on many social issues won't win over many of the religious groups in middle America.

However, many Republican operatives believe that the political climate is once again changing and with new challenges our country faces in the twenty-first century, a Rudy Giuliani could realign voting trends. On fiscal matters, Giuliani has more often stood on the right side of economic development and conservative principles in job growth and business expansion. As an executive of one of the largest cities in America, his leadership in New York City is equivalent to a governor in many of our United States. He also had to work with a legislature that has always and will always be in the hands of his opposition.

It's still too early to determine whether America is ready for a man like Rudolph Giuliani, but a presidential campaign could put the man in position to be a vice presidential candidate, the Attorney General or the Director of Homeland Security. He may not successfully win the White house, but it won’t hurt in furthering his career in leadership for our country.

Governor George E. Pataki.
Against all odds, the former mayor of Peekskill, NY, built up a political following and took away the governor's mansion from three term liberal icon, Mario Cuomo. Governor Pataki, like many elected officials, has a record of never losing a campaign he didn’t believe he could win (Senator John Kerry was in that boat prior to 2004). If he decides to run for president, could Pataki surprise the political nay sayers with a victory in 2008?

The answer is no, but I am not someone who believes an ambitious poll should be told not run for an office he or she believes is winnable. There's the issues factor with candidates. Could George Pataki shape the debate on matters that wouldn't be brought to the national stage by another candidate? Yes. He can also play a role in steering voters towards or away from other Republican candidates in the mix. He could present a challenge to the Democratic contenders which could destroy their political ambitions.

George Pataki has money and the drive to present his presidential case to the general public. He won't win enough support to go far in the primary process, but I believe he is one candidate that will change the face of the 2008 race for both Republicans and Democrats. If he places in the top three of Republican candidates in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary, expect Americans to take a further look at Governor George Pataki as a viable candidate on issues for our 2008 presidential election.

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The inspiration for this blog entry derives from a Newsday story on December 11, 2006.

by Daniel Peterson, Wednesday, Dec. 20 | Permalink