« YR Holiday Social - Membership Renewal [Back to Blog] Candidate Development Seminar - Wed 1/23 »

The Presidential Candidates for 2008

For those who have been involved with the New York Young Republican Club, in the past and in the present, are probably aware that presidential campaigns can divide membership and create tension within the leadership. That is why, as the current president of the club, I have not issued any endorsement or support behind one particular candidate. Any of the men running for the republican nomination can email or contact me with a campaign event in the area and I will gladly notify membership and let my members decide whether they wish to support a particular candidate.

However, this is not to say that I haven’t thought about each person running and formulated opinions on them. This entry will be about my thoughts on the GOP presidential candidates. I will focus on the relevant candidates, so Rep. Tom Tancredo and Rep. Duncan Hunter will have to forgive me for not mentioning them beyond this sentence.

Fred Thompson
Back in April, when I was elected president of the NYYRC, one of the first guest speakers I wanted to reach out to and come speak at one of our monthly forums, was an actor-turned politician-turned actor from the hit NYC drama, Law & Order. I reached out through contacts and eventually got a response that Mr. Thompson may decide to run for president, so getting him to address membership will likely not happen.

At that time, the thought of a Fred Thompson candidacy was a very good idea and looked forward to seeing him on the stump. However, with the media on top of him while he explored a potential run made him come off tired and boring and not up-to-speed on current events. It looked foolish for him to be touring the country and not be “running for president.”

The argument against Thompson in that he entered the race late is silly. He didn’t enter the race late. In 1992, Governor Clinton entered the Presidential race in October 1991, much later than anyone this year (except for perhaps Alan Keyes). The real issue folks were upset with Thompson early on had to do with his avoiding the rules of the campaign finance laws. I blogged on Urban Elephants about how it is hypocritical of a man who voted for McCain-Feingold, but chooses to avoid it by dilly-dallying.

When Thompson stepped into the race the immediate criticism was he comes of as aloof. However, there is a part to play by the President and a part to play by Congress. Thompson could be a very good leader if he lets the American People understand certain matters must be done by the local elected officials. Maybe this would encourage voters to pay attention to who their local leaders are.

Thompson’s message of federalism resonates with me. His tax proposal is progressive and promising. I wouldn’t have any objections to him if he wins the nomination. I may feel disappointed with his lack of charisma, but that isn’t a requirement for a candidate.


Mitt Romney
I have this like-dislike for Governor Romney. I like his record of success as an executive in the private sector, but I’m not pleased with his record as governor, since he served one term and spent the last two years of his term running for president. I like that he’s comfortable in his own skin and speaks well, which is great for communicating the Republican message. However, he looks plastic and sounds like a game show host and I can understand why some voters are unsure about his truthfulness and honesty. As for a select few in our party holding the man to a “religious test” for being our “moral leader,” I wish we, as a party, had the ability to expell you from our registration rolls. Democrats can select a Mormon to be their Senate Majority Leader, but we can’t select a Mormon to be our Presidential Candidate?

When someone challenges a candidate on his record of taxes and spending, when dealing with a governor, you need to take it with a grain of salt. So often you hear, “I balanced four budgets” which isn’t much of a feat when governors are required to balance budgets. If budgets didn’t have to be balanced, I’m sure tax-cutting Republicans would take more of a risk in cutting taxes over balancing their state budgets.

Romney has shown his naivette in the race (as has Thompson), but thankfully our government isn’t a one-man show. Governor George Bush made a fool of not knowing leaders when interviewed in 1999, but he’s been a solid leader in the fight against Global Terrorism.

Ron Paul
Congressman Paul is a great voice for fiscal conservatives and free market activists within the Republican Party. His candidacy should inspire conservatives across the country to run for congress. Wouldn’t anti-regulation, tax-cutting, free market candidates for the House of Representatives be wonderful for the Republican Party in 2008? Mr. Paul has raised more money than his campaign needs, so when he isn’t selected as the nominee, he can channel that money in campaigns across the US.

Ron Paul’s candidacy is also great for the Republican Party in New York City. If the NYC GOP could absorb the libertarian base in the five boroughs, we could increase our chances of winning local seats. The belief of smaller government and federalism is most effective on local seats for congress, state legislature and city government is something NY Republicans need.

John McCain
A while back, I wrote on Urban Elephants on the possible collapse of the GOP field and the return of the war veteran, Senator John McCain. My belief was the “Default Theory” which was the theory that propelled Sen. John Kerry to the nomination in 2004. Kerry was the early favorite but dropped down in the polls for maverick Howard Dean, pretty boy John Edwards and one-time VP candidate, Joe Lieberman.

Just before the Iowa caucus, everyone sort of fell by the wayside, except for Howard Dean. Dean’s deaniacs when across the state, door to door, encouraging... or should I say "insisting" that registered democrats vote for their man. This turned off a lot of voters and in the end John Kerry won the caucus. Then, we all know history; like lemings, the democrats in every other state decided to jump off the cliff with their Iowan buddies, not studying the poor choice made for a National candidate.

I have reservations about McCain. He's a fiscal manager, not a tax and spend cutter (he hates Pork spending though). He's receptive to the "man causes global warming" crowd. And he has that Campaign Finance Law that trumps free speech on his shoulders. But if we as a party win back the House, then I we shouldn't be too worried about conservative issues not being on the agenda.

This could happen on the GOP side this year, however the flaws in McCain’s candidacy aren’t as damaging as John Kerry’s flaws. John McCain would make for a fine candidate. Not one of our candidates makes me full my support behind, so if McCain is the nominee, or Thompson or Romney, I will be pleased.

Michael Huckabee
Mike Huckabee is a feel good candidate for social conservatives. He's got strong convictions on social issues, but he doesn't throw all in your face. When he speaks about them, he speaks in a way that a listener would interpret as Huckabee's own personal feelings. That resonates with the christian conservatives. He would lead with their principles, but do it in a "compassionate" way.

I have no problem with Huckabee's social convictions. I have issues with his fiscal management style. I can give him the benefit of the doubt in that he led his state in a way that required him to balance a budget and that his tax & fee increases (that Romney likes to point out) were based on votes by the people of the state. In the Fox News debate, Huckabee said that a 3 cent gas tax was to build roads and it was voted on by the people. Yeah, he proposed it, but it was the people who said "yes" to it. Still, he doesn't come across as a reaganite when it comes to supply-side economics.

Also, Huckabee has a favorable rating with the Teachers Union, which to me, is saying he is anti-choice with schools. He's a true anti-choice candidate (abortion & schools) and I'm not sure our country can afford protecting our Educational system "as is."

Mike Huckabee is also known to lead with a "Nanny State" mentality. Perhaps Mayor Bloomberg supporters who are socially conservative would support him, but I'm not big on someone telling me how to live. If it was between a Nanny Stater and a Ron Paul, I think I'd choose Paul.

Rudolph Giuliani
With the early caucus & primary results, one would wonder where in the world is the NYC Mayor?

Rudy Giuliani chose a different strategy in campaigning, which may turn out to be a big mistake. He decided to focus on Super Tuesday (Feb 5) states as well as Florida. By then, the race may be over. Maybe he should've picked at the little guys in between Iowa & New Hampshire. If he modestly won Wyoming and wins Michigan, he'd have some street cred. But the way it is looking, the race is wide open.

Giuliani has many negatives. His best opponent would be Hillary Clinton. Against Obama, I feel he would lose (You want my opinion of Edwards? He'd lose to any of the Republican candidates). Rudy has to place well in Michigan and South Carolina to have a shot in Florida. Already, Huckabee is polling well in the Sunshine State. Rudy will need a second or third place finish, because if he's fourth or lower again, Florida may officially be lost. Then, he'd be in trouble on Super Tuesday.

= = = =

Republicans have six strong candidates. Even Duncan Hunter, who will make a wonderful Vice President for the Romney, Giulian, Thompson candidacies. The papers are loving the uncertainty. So am I. Here's hoping this drags, because it means more attention on the campaigns and maybe the general public will start to pay attention.

by Daniel Peterson, Monday, Dec. 24 | Permalink



Comments

Mike Huckabee has energized social conservatives. He may very well win the nomination or be a V.P. nominee and I believe he has stopped Rudy in his tracks. As for Ron Paul, he is an isolationist, has accepted donations from neo-nazis and also from brothel owners. Why anybody would think he would "energize" New York City Republicans (besides his fanatical followers) is beyond me. I do not like cult figures!

by Alice Lemos , Thursday, Dec. 27

Posted by Alice Lemos
Thursday, Dec. 27 - 12:33 PM




It is sad that these establishment types are trying to derail Governor Huckabee or portray him as some kind of hick. It shows that they are elitists.

by Nancy Spinner , Thursday, Dec. 27

Posted by Nancy Spinner
Thursday, Dec. 27 - 1:34 PM




I rather would like to have Thompson in office. :D He's the conservative choice as his ad proudly proclaims. He's pro-border, pro-life, pro-victory, pro-defense. I really don't see anything wrong with him. :D Huckabee is a populatist. Rudy is a liberal. Ron Paul is a libertarian. Romney is for socialized meds.

by Ben , Sunday, Dec. 30

Posted by Ben
Sunday, Dec. 30 - 8:02 PM




Unfortunately, Thompson supported McCain Feingold and has not been very energetic. He also blew the interview on Russert when he said that he would not support the pro life plank of the GOP. He put his foot in his mouth on that one.

by Alice , Wednesday, Jan. 2

Posted by Alice
Wednesday, Jan. 2 - 9:06 AM




The Huck has been endorsed by the wonderful Star Parker. I would also like to remind people that he received 47% of the black vote when he ran for reelection in Arkansas in 2002. It is very important to welcome minority members into the GOP and Mike Huckabee has done that and can do it as the presidential nominee. Rudy's relationship with the minority community, while he was mayor, was strained to say the least.

by Alice , Thursday, Jan. 3

Posted by Alice
Thursday, Jan. 3 - 9:03 AM




Thompson will likely bow out and back McCain. Even though there are many matters of McCain I dislike - McCain-Feingold, his belief in global warming, his defense of john kerry and other things - I do think he would be a strong candidate for us. Even Romney would, but he's gotta stop being so negative on his opponents. It makes him look bad. Huckabee I haven't written about yet. I will though. he comes off as a social conservative Mike Bloomberg. He's an autocrat who is a little naiive on foreign policy. At this point in our existance, I think foreign affairs is one of the top 3 matters for a president.

by daniel , Thursday, Jan. 3

Posted by daniel
Thursday, Jan. 3 - 4:14 PM




Danny, you start out saying you are only going to talk about relevant candidates and then you mention Ron Paul? He's at like 2% in the polls. How's that relevant?

You also left out the Huckster's Arkansas record. He increased taxes and spending more in 10 years than Bill Clinton did in 12 years. He pardoned murderers. He's criticized the war in Iraq. He sounds like a pro-life liberal to me. Not to mention that he doesn't believe in evolution and thinks the earth is only 6000 years old. This guy could never win a general election and likely turns off more republicans than he turns on.

Thompson gets the Paul treatment now. He's already about to drop out, after only a few months in the race. He was the dream of the far right zealots who thought he was the answer to Rudy. Didn't quite work out that way, however. Now they are praying that the liberal Huckabee can beat down Rudy. Good luck with that.

Rudy has proven far more resiliant than anyone imagined. He's still the odds on favorite to win the nomination. The only guys with a serious chance of beating Rudy are Romney and McCain.

McCain certainly has his problems and has never been popular with republicans. His support is more indies, but should he win the nomination he would be a strong candidate in the general.

Romney will likely win both Iowa and NH ending the Hucksters momentum. Huckabee support all came from Romney, but is now swinging back. Rudy's slight drop benefitted McCain but we'll have to see how long that lasts.

Only McCain or Romney can beat Rudy in the super Tuesday states, and those are the ones that really matter. Rudy doesn't need to win Iowa, NH or SC to win the nomination. If he looses Fl is would be a blow and would be the only thing that opens the door for Mit or Mac on super Tuesday.

On the dem side, I predict Edwards will be the nominee. You heard it here first.

by Robert Hornak , Thursday, Jan. 3

Posted by Robert Hornak
Thursday, Jan. 3 - 4:48 PM




I left Ron Paul in as relevant only because I believe he is relevant to the Republican base in New York City. I believe the NYC GOP can benefit from Paul Revolutionaries and I'm not about to cross them in anyway. ;)

by daniel , Saturday, Jan. 5

Posted by daniel
Saturday, Jan. 5 - 11:57 AM




I hate to break it to some people, but 19 people were executed when Huckabee was governor. He is not soft on crime! He was also forced to raise taxes pursuant to COURT ORDERS to increase fundign for education.

by Alice Lemos , Monday, Jan. 7

Posted by Alice Lemos
Monday, Jan. 7 - 1:33 PM




I have been told by a reliable source that even in New York, Rudy's "supporters" are no longer betting on him and are backing away - including some district leaders.

by Alice Lemos , Monday, Jan. 7

Posted by Alice Lemos
Monday, Jan. 7 - 1:57 PM




Edwards as the nominee? Sorry, I don't think so! And Huck is polling well in Florida and South Carolina. I don't think McCain will do well in So. Carolina - they have long memories and will remember his amnesty bill. But let's wait and see.

by Alicia Brito , Wednesday, Jan. 9

Posted by Alicia Brito
Wednesday, Jan. 9 - 3:32 PM




Rudy's Florida staff is foregoing their salaries so I guess he is in trouble there. We had a great Huckabee meetup today.

by Alice Lemos , Saturday, Jan. 12

Posted by Alice Lemos
Saturday, Jan. 12 - 3:11 PM




It looks like Rudy is fading in Florida. All the politicos who hitched their wagons to him must be having second thoughts now. It would be ironic if he were to lose New York - especially after it was fixed to be "winner takes all" and he came in second or third.

by Alice Lemos , Monday, Jan. 14

Posted by Alice Lemos
Monday, Jan. 14 - 12:42 PM




Post a comment




Remember Me?

(you may use HTML tags for style)