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February 08, 2008
Next Book Club Meeting Tue Feb 26
The Second NYYRC Book Club Meeting will be held on Tuesday February 26th.
Location
The Pudding Stones Wine Bar
3rd Avenue (bet 82nd & 83rd)
www.puddingstoneswinebar.com
Tuesday, February 26 8 PM
Public Transportation: Sub 4,5,6 to 86/Lex Bus M101, M102, M103
Book
Letters to a Young Conservative
Author: Dinesh D'Souza
Please R.S.V.P. to this meeting/event.
Posted by NYYRC at 11:15 PM | Comments (0)
February 03, 2008
What Should (or Could) Have Been… Done?
As a New Yorker, I encountered many supporters for Mayor Rudy Giuliani. He was endorsed by the Queens Republican County Committee and the Brooklyn Young Republicans. Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno was backing the former mayor and was rallying his troops, so that his hold of the State Senate will remain and hopefully increase this November.
Unfortunately, the support will now have to shift to on of the remaining candidates and I’m seeing it split between the two front-runners. The Queens GOP is now backing Sen. John McCain. Many District Leaders in Manhattan have jumped onboard with Gov. Mitt Romney. All of this could have been avoided if Giuliani and his advisors chose a better strategy than the “Florida or bust” strategy.
What was the Rudy Giuliani strategy?
There were four big States before Florida. Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. John McCain was written out of the equasion. No money and no support before anyone voted. Advantage Rudy. Mitt Romney had a strategy of taking Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan (along with smaller states Nevada & Wyoming) and bringing this momentum into South Carolina. If Romney had won three of the four first big States, how did Giuliani think he could turn the tides without winning early?
What did happen was Mike Huckabee won Iowa, John McCain won New Hampshire and MItt Romney won Michigan. This was thought to be an even better turn of events for Giuliani. The electorate was undecided and should remain undecided until Florida. Giulian pulled all of his volunteers our of States before Florida and made it an all out effort to take the Sunshine State. A big mistake.
An open campaign like this year becomes all about the top three. All during last year, candidates were broken into two tiers. The top tier and the bottom tier. Fred Thompson wasn’t catching on and John McCain had no money and was written off, but were still considered “Top Tier.” This is very telling. The media even wrote about the fall of McCain and the Thompson momentum stalling right out of the gate. Not one journalist put these two men in the same category as a Tom Tancredo or a Duncan Hunter.
So, what should Giuliani have done?
He needed to “show” in one fo the early States. Show means he needed to come in first, second or third in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan or South Carolina. He wasn’t even a blip in the early States. After twenty-five days of news on Huckabee, McCain and Romney, every other candidate was pushed off the printing press and forgotten about. Thompson? Tom? Fred? Jimmy? Wasn’t he the big anti-immigrant guy? And the libertarian everyone was talking about. Was it Gravel? Dennis Gravel? Oh, those were Democrats? Who was teh guy with two first names? Peter Robert? Peter Paul Mary?
Nothing would have been better for the Giuliani campaign than battling in an early State. One would think South Carolina, being very conservative, would not be the choice of Team Rudy, but what about Iowa?
The first of fifty, Iowa appeared to be a likely place to start. Former New York Governor, George Pataki made a number of stops to Iowa before deciding not to run. Iowa could’ve been in a New York State of mind and Rudy could’ve gone in and made an impression on the voters. Predictions was that Romney would win and Huckabee, who was showed lift in the polls, would come in second. Third was open, so where was Rudy?
New Hampshire was a State that Giuliani actually had a presense in, but once Huckabee won Iowa, Team Rudy pulled out. After the vote, McCain came in first and, like Iowa, Giuliani’s numbers were nowhere near the top three candidates. Even though the Romeny campaign hoped to win both States, he came in second in both and there was talk of Mitt on every newspaper, every website and on TV.
Michigan became an all of nothing for Romney to win and that’s what all the talk was about. No one even mentioned Rudy Giuliani. Here was a big state that was all about the economy. High unemployment and unions and folks concerned about their future. Team Rudy didn’t set foot in the State. This is where I believe Team Rudy erred.
Giuliani had an opportunity to come in second or third in a big state, still be relevant, while running on one of his strong points. The economy. Rudy came into New York City on a wave of change and changed the way people thought of our big city. Crime and jobs. He could’ve given Romney a run for his money in a State that is all about jobs and the economy.
In a matter of ... well, one day, Floridians went to the polls and ended Giuliani’s campaign. The front runner for the Republicans throughout all of 2007. The man to beat, the man who was being handed the nomination, dropped out faster than his run for Senate in 2000. Somehow, somewhere, the candidate forgot that policital pundits who tell him he’s got it in the bag, don’t vote. It’s the people of the states. And they will only vote for who they know. If they don’t know you, then you’re out of luck.
Posted by Daniel Peterson at 11:43 AM | Comments (1)
Inevitability Never Comes Early
Back in the Fall of 2006, I was at a fundraiser for Rich Wager, one of our candidates for congress in New York. I met a man who used to be involved in the Urban Republican Coalition, which was started by our club's former chairman, Robert Hornak. After mentioning I was president of the New York Young Republican Club, we got into a conversation about our candidates. He definitely appeared as someone who has spent more years in political circles than I have, so I thought it would be insightful to who believes our best candidate is.
He asked me, "Who are you supporting? Giuliani?"
I simply replied that I have not backed a candidate yet, because it was too early for me to decide, when our primary isn't until February 5.
"There's no point in looking at the other candidates," he said, "because Rudy is going to be the Republican nominee."
"I don't know about that," I replied. "It's still too early to for anyone to believe one candidate will win over the other."
"It's already been decided," he answered. "Who do you think has a chance? Thomspon? Romney?"
This is where I used my best skill in sensing where the electorate is. At the time of this fundraiser, McCain was out of contention, because of a staff shake up and lack of funds. Fred Thompson hadn't even entered yet and the media was getting on him for it. And there was no mention of Huckabee. He was in the crowded second tier field with Tommy Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter. It was basically Giuliani & Romney and the general feeling was Romney would disappear by the time the Florida primary rolled around.
"Well," I began, "I don't think Fred Thompson will be significant, because he lacks charisma and I think his fundraising by avoiding campaign finance laws, which is something he voted for, will turn away Republicans. Romney, I don't know too much about, but if I was to bet on a horse breaking out from the pack, I'd put my money on McCain."
"Please. McCain is through," the man said. "He's got too many skeletons with conservatives and he's got no chance in winning the support that Giuliani already has."
Many political pundits had this mindset. Two days after my original Urban Elephants blog on McCain being a “Rising Phoenix,”, Ryan Sager wrote an op-ed on how ridiculous it is for the handful of folks who believe McCain will return to contention.
Fast forward to today, I still wonder why I don't make it a career to be a political consultant and analyst. In 2004, I told my Democrat friends that President Bush would win re-election, when they were certain Kerry has the votes. In 2006, I predicted Republicans would lose both the Senate and the House, when Manhattan Republican leaders were certain the House (at least) would not be lost. And finally, last Fall, with the Peatreus surge in Iraq working, voters will take a second look at Senator John McCain, as did Democrats when Senator John Kerry was written off in 2004 just before the Iowa caucus.
I'm not saying that I didn't believe Mayor Giuliani had a chance to win the nomination. I just believed that Senator McCain would return into one of the top Republican choices.
I was a bit surprised that Giuliani supporters were certain - without question – that Rudy would be the nominee. This belief in inevitability is what has hurt New York Republicans the past fifteen years. It’s a belief that has to leave those who are running operations in this state.
Everyone thinks they know what’s going to happen, but what they fail to remember is the percentage of voters who know politics - as much as you do - is in the single digits. A campaign or an event has to happen first before one can predict “inevitability” in politics. The majority of voters - let’s say in New York - are busy worrying about their own lives. These folks care about traffic and weather. Young Manhattanites are more concerned with dating and what bar or restaurant they’ll be going to on the weekends. Suburbanites are concerned about congestion pricing right now and not the New York Primaries.
Many New Yorkers are sports fans. During the summer, it’s the Mets and Yankees. During the winter, it’s the Jets and Giants. Most of the voting population will know what is going on in Brittney Spears life, than which presidential candidate said he saw a UFO.
If each and every day of our lives is spent focusing on the next political event, we should take a step away once in a while. Take a breath and separate ourselves form the political world and think about regular folks. These are the people who vote. These are the people that will decide our future.
Posted by Daniel Peterson at 10:33 AM | Comments (1)