"I don't know about that," I replied. "It's still too early to for anyone to believe one candidate will win over the other."

"It's already been decided," he answered. "Who do you think has a chance? Thomspon? Romney?"

This is where I used my best skill in sensing where the electorate is. At the time of this fundraiser, McCain was out of contention, because of a staff shake up and lack of funds. Fred Thompson hadn't even entered yet and the media was getting on him for it. And there was no mention of Huckabee. He was in the crowded second tier field with Tommy Thompson, Tom Tancredo, Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter. It was basically Giuliani & Romney and the general feeling was Romney would disappear by the time the Florida primary rolled around.

"Well," I began, "I don't think Fred Thompson will be significant, because he lacks charisma and I think his fundraising by avoiding campaign finance laws, which is something he voted for, will turn away Republicans. Romney, I don't know too much about, but if I was to bet on a horse breaking out from the pack, I'd put my money on McCain."

"Please. McCain is through," the man said. "He's got too many skeletons with conservatives and he's got no chance in winning the support that Giuliani already has."

Many political pundits had this mindset. Two days after my original Urban Elephants blog on McCain being a “Rising Phoenix,”, Ryan Sager wrote an op-ed on how ridiculous it is for the handful of folks who believe McCain will return to contention.

Fast forward to today, I still wonder why I don't make it a career to be a political consultant and analyst. In 2004, I told my Democrat friends that President Bush would win re-election, when they were certain Kerry has the votes. In 2006, I predicted Republicans would lose both the Senate and the House, when Manhattan Republican leaders were certain the House (at least) would not be lost. And finally, last Fall, with the Peatreus surge in Iraq working, voters will take a second look at Senator John McCain, as did Democrats when Senator John Kerry was written off in 2004 just before the Iowa caucus.

I'm not saying that I didn't believe Mayor Giuliani had a chance to win the nomination. I just believed that Senator McCain would return into one of the top Republican choices.

I was a bit surprised that Giuliani supporters were certain - without question – that Rudy would be the nominee. This belief in inevitability is what has hurt New York Republicans the past fifteen years. It’s a belief that has to leave those who are running operations in this state.

Everyone thinks they know what’s going to happen, but what they fail to remember is the percentage of voters who know politics - as much as you do - is in the single digits. A campaign or an event has to happen first before one can predict “inevitability” in politics. The majority of voters - let’s say in New York - are busy worrying about their own lives. These folks care about traffic and weather. Young Manhattanites are more concerned with dating and what bar or restaurant they’ll be going to on the weekends. Suburbanites are concerned about congestion pricing right now and not the New York Primaries.

Many New Yorkers are sports fans. During the summer, it’s the Mets and Yankees. During the winter, it’s the Jets and Giants. Most of the voting population will know what is going on in Brittney Spears life, than which presidential candidate said he saw a UFO.

If each and every day of our lives is spent focusing on the next political event, we should take a step away once in a while. Take a breath and separate ourselves form the political world and think about regular folks. These are the people who vote. These are the people that will decide our future.