There were four big States before Florida. Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina. John McCain was written out of the equasion. No money and no support before anyone voted. Advantage Rudy. Mitt Romney had a strategy of taking Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan (along with smaller states Nevada & Wyoming) and bringing this momentum into South Carolina. If Romney had won three of the four first big States, how did Giuliani think he could turn the tides without winning early?

What did happen was Mike Huckabee won Iowa, John McCain won New Hampshire and MItt Romney won Michigan. This was thought to be an even better turn of events for Giuliani. The electorate was undecided and should remain undecided until Florida. Giulian pulled all of his volunteers our of States before Florida and made it an all out effort to take the Sunshine State. A big mistake.

An open campaign like this year becomes all about the top three. All during last year, candidates were broken into two tiers. The top tier and the bottom tier. Fred Thompson wasn’t catching on and John McCain had no money and was written off, but were still considered “Top Tier.” This is very telling. The media even wrote about the fall of McCain and the Thompson momentum stalling right out of the gate. Not one journalist put these two men in the same category as a Tom Tancredo or a Duncan Hunter.

So, what should Giuliani have done?

He needed to “show” in one fo the early States. Show means he needed to come in first, second or third in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan or South Carolina. He wasn’t even a blip in the early States. After twenty-five days of news on Huckabee, McCain and Romney, every other candidate was pushed off the printing press and forgotten about. Thompson? Tom? Fred? Jimmy? Wasn’t he the big anti-immigrant guy? And the libertarian everyone was talking about. Was it Gravel? Dennis Gravel? Oh, those were Democrats? Who was teh guy with two first names? Peter Robert? Peter Paul Mary?

Nothing would have been better for the Giuliani campaign than battling in an early State. One would think South Carolina, being very conservative, would not be the choice of Team Rudy, but what about Iowa?

The first of fifty, Iowa appeared to be a likely place to start. Former New York Governor, George Pataki made a number of stops to Iowa before deciding not to run. Iowa could’ve been in a New York State of mind and Rudy could’ve gone in and made an impression on the voters. Predictions was that Romney would win and Huckabee, who was showed lift in the polls, would come in second. Third was open, so where was Rudy?

New Hampshire was a State that Giuliani actually had a presense in, but once Huckabee won Iowa, Team Rudy pulled out. After the vote, McCain came in first and, like Iowa, Giuliani’s numbers were nowhere near the top three candidates. Even though the Romeny campaign hoped to win both States, he came in second in both and there was talk of Mitt on every newspaper, every website and on TV.

Michigan became an all of nothing for Romney to win and that’s what all the talk was about. No one even mentioned Rudy Giuliani. Here was a big state that was all about the economy. High unemployment and unions and folks concerned about their future. Team Rudy didn’t set foot in the State. This is where I believe Team Rudy erred.

Giuliani had an opportunity to come in second or third in a big state, still be relevant, while running on one of his strong points. The economy. Rudy came into New York City on a wave of change and changed the way people thought of our big city. Crime and jobs. He could’ve given Romney a run for his money in a State that is all about jobs and the economy.

In a matter of ... well, one day, Floridians went to the polls and ended Giuliani’s campaign. The front runner for the Republicans throughout all of 2007. The man to beat, the man who was being handed the nomination, dropped out faster than his run for Senate in 2000. Somehow, somewhere, the candidate forgot that policital pundits who tell him he’s got it in the bag, don’t vote. It’s the people of the states. And they will only vote for who they know. If they don’t know you, then you’re out of luck.